Thursday, October 29, 2009

Prediction from Top Few US Market-Timers (Experts)

Gross, Roubini, Ritholtz and Smithers All Forecast a Correction

Bill Gross says assets are overvalued and the rally is over.

Nouriel Roubini - who called last year's crash - said last week that "a big crash is coming":

    There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the U.S., zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets:commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.

    It’s going to go crashing down, in an ugly way. That’s the basics of the argument...

    There is a wall of liquidity chasing assets. That liquidity can chase those assets higher for the time being until the huge carry trade—the asset bubble and the wall of liquidity—comes crashing down. You can still have all the risky assets going higher. Of course, the higher they go, the more they diverge from fundamentals, and the riskier the situation becomes. But eventually, if the recovery of the economy is going to be anemic, sub-par, below-trend and U-shaped, there is going to be a correction. And therefore my view is to stay away from risky assets. Stay in liquid assets. I don’t know when the correction is going to occur, it could be a while longer, but eventually it will be a pretty ugly correction, across many different asset classes.

Barry Ritholtz, who has been very bullish for some time, is now looking for a correction:

    I see a significant increase in the odds for a fairly substantial correction — in the 5 – 15% range — over the next 60 days.

    5 factors are making me more cautious:

        1) Over the past 4 days, we have had 3 failed rallies;

        2) The number of New Highs on the major indices is contracting;

        3) Stocks seem to be reacting far less enthusiastically to earnings beats then they had been;

        4) The Transports have been acting squirrelly lately;

        5) The S&P is forming an Ascending Wedge (more on this later today).

Here's the Ascending Wedge he's talking about.

And, as Bloomberg writes:

    The U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about 40 percent overvalued and headed for a drop as central banks pull back on securities purchases that pushed up asset prices, according to economist Andrew Smithers.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Road Toward the Future of US

Just to share this from someone well-known with credibility in USA.

1. Inflation will escalate over a period of 2 years.
2. Gold and Silver is all you can rely and it is the Elites currency
3. By 2012, the dollar will be dead.
4. Stock Market will go up, up, and up to ridiculous levels then crash.
5. Within 2 years everyone will be working for the government.
6. They want to narrow banks down to 9 major banks.
7. Opec is going to use a basket of currencies.
8. They altered timeline by the American people giving 2.5 trillion.
9. In 2 years, you will be so broke you cannot rebel against the government.
10. When you see more people in government, then time of collapse is near.
11. As the dollar decreases gold and stock market will go up.
12. When you see the dollar drop very rapidly the 2 year timeline is over.
13. Reserve currency status is being lost in the dollar and you will see the dollar lose it faster.

War
1. War is planned in 2 years involving Israel and Iran, then spread to entire world.

Church and the Devil’s Messiah
1. The elite have to remove America’s God to conquer the republic.
2. Elite are not talking about the antichrist when talking about the devil’s messiah.
3. Elite are talking about a system and a spirit of deception – Devil’s Messiah
4. Elite have cause to be people to think they are evolutionized animals.
5. People thinking they are animals causes human beings to act like animals (Evolution).
6. Elite caused churches to be federalized by deceiving pastors with the 501 C3 form (1967).
7. Fill out forms in church to find out personal information about people in church.
8. They fill out forms for Homeland Security.
Buzz Words are used in media from Elite for the Agenda
1. The war brought the country out of the depression.
2. Iran’s external enemy is Israel
3. Separation of Church and State.

Obama and Mccain
1. They wanted Mccain in office or at least this division of Elite wanted Mccain.
2. No matter which person won the election, they controlled both parties.
3. Obama is pushing their agenda, but they are not happy with him lately.
4. Obama is totally out of control by touching sore spots of Elite.