Another RIGHTFUL Guess?

Looks like our prophecy is correct again.

How about this time?

These are the estimated short-term bottom levels. Will the followings become realities?

HSI = <10,000
DJIA = <7500
China = <1300
STI = <1300
KLCI = <700
OIL = <60

Regardless the answer is YES / NO, we are currently nearing the bottom, but not at the bottom yet (i suppose).

Is the Bear Markets ending soon?

Looks like some of my estimations are matched with the current market condition according to my previous post: Prophecy of our Economy (Jun-2008).

Current: Possible Turning Point:
DJIA is hovering 9,500 - 10,000 marks. Will it touch 8,000 - 9000 marks?
HSI is hovering 16,000 - 18,000 marks. Will it touch 15,000 marks?
KLCI is hovering 900-1,000 marks. Will it touch 800 marks?
CHINA is hovering 2,000 marks. Will it touch 1,800 marks?
STI is hovering 2,000 marks. Will it touch 1,800 marks?
many more......

What is going to happen next after Anniversary of Global Economy Turmoil (since Aug-2007)?

GOD knows...

Hope the Good Turning Point for the Global Economy could happen within 6 months or so.

Prophecy of our Economy

By end of 2008, we will realized below descriptions are so familiar although we might think it is ridiculous. If we look backward on Oct - Nov 2007 that so called "Peak Time", we are actually in the direction of slipping from mountain toward sea.

Just curious how long or how soon we could reach the sea and move toward another hill to climb again.

Scenarios:
Dow Jones = <10,000
Hang Seng = < 20,000
KLCI (Malaysia) = < 1000
...
..
.
and many more , you just can easily name few...


The Global Sell-Off time is coming / already started months ago.

Let's wish we can fight thru such "Deep Impact"!

Oil Crisis?

I guess most of us starts to feel the pain when oil exceeds $130 range, and starts to tightening the belt, it is not seat-belt sorry.

I am sure there is a common question about: Would the oil price will go down? If yes, when? If no, how?

I am not agreed with Perfection thus the oil price might go down till $100-$110 range by Q3 '08, if not Q4 '08.

The ceiling level for 2008 is $165 per barrel conservatively.

Lets see if my wish comes true...

Effect of US Market Trend in 2008

Did you ever realized that the HK / China Index behave similarly as US prior to 2008; but opposite direction (behaves differently) 2008 onwards?

My guess is that we are now in the Transition period of China replacing US as the Driver of World Economy. However, this process might take quite a long time together with several rounds of adjustments by both Giant Economies.

So is that means HK / China market is now a better choice for investment rather than US?

The answer is: Yes and No. It is because the foreign funds are flowing from various places especially the Western. Any deep impact such as Major Sell-Off or Huge Correction in the US market would still affect the HK / China market, although small sell-off or minor correction might not give much impact.

No doubt there are always few market sectors that could bring you some gains during Volatility or even Bad Time......

Is Interest Rate Cut by US Federal useful?

If Interest Rate cut happened, it means the Fed admits the fact the US economy is slowing down and will proceed to Recession (or US might already in initial stage).

If Interest Rate remain unchanged, the US economy will slowly downward as all the negative news might as well keep awakening the investors, people will start disappointed then transitioning to Recession.

If Interest Rate increased, the Properties will increasingly stuck due to decreasing buyers, Sub-prime Crisis will continuously spread widely, people will get disappointed, other type of debt crisis is going to happen as well then proceed to Recession.

So what US can do to avoid it's destiny from hitting any of the above? What a wonderful but tough question that Fed is still struggling on to Fix all the issues other than just Interest-Rate Cut...

2008 An Extremely Challenging year!

If you think 2007 is a volatile year, then 2008 is a tougher and bumpy year. We are going to ride several rounds of 360 degrees of upside-down roller coaster soon.

The possible destiny for 2008 would be as any of below:
1. The final year for us to grab the fruits (last bull year of century); or
2. The year with full of uncertainties bundled with various bad news (swinging mood for investors); or
3. The year the stock market(s) start to slow down (people start panic / curious / worry); or
4. The year the stock market(s) start to crash (people start admitting the fact - too late).

Overall, 2009 would be the worst year if not 2008 or else do wish me I'm wrong...

Are you ready...?

Had you tightened up your seat-belt?

Stay tuned......

2007 YOY Performance of Economic Director

Jan: +6%
Feb: +10%
Mac: +5%
Apr: +4%
May: +1%
Jun: +5%
Jul: +11%
Aug: 0%
Sep: +12%
Oct: +8%
Nov: -1%
Dec : +4%

Total Return: 65% (Year On Year)

2006 YOY Performance of Economic Director

Jan: +4%
Feb: +3%
Mac: +7%
Apr: +8%
May: -3%
Jun: +4%
July: +3%
Aug: 0%
Sep: -2%
Oct: +5%
Nov: +6%
Dec: 0%

Total Return: 35% (Year On Year)

What are Economic Director and Investment Timer?

Challenging yourself to achieve better profit every year is a tough but fun. 2006 is the year where my investment portfolio kicked start. I use various resources and tool as well as a little of my 6th Sense (funny huh?!) to determine the direction of my investment portfolio every time.

Economic Director (ED) => as a performance index I used to represent my own investment portfolio for benchmark against others.

Investment Timer (IT) => as the indicator to determine the investment vehicle(s) that generate better return on specific region at particular time frame.

I am a medium risk-factor investor as general thus the involvement in stocks is minimal or none in order to achieve Capital Preservation and Profit Maximization across the economy cycle regardless the market condition.

This is a very tough challenge and it seems to be either too difficult or almost impossible to achieve it, at least for an investor as me. That's the reason I just started to share my view here and the information is just for reference or view exchange only.

This site might not interest you if you are not the same type of investor as me. Furthermore, I am just an ordinary Malaysian Investor and I am still learning as most investors did.

Happy Investing!